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New Hampshire Economic Outlook November 2013

Executive Summary

Date: November 14th, 2013

New Hampshire will most likely be the third state in New England to recover the jobs lost in the Great Recession, with the state hitting its pre-recession employment peak in the spring of 2014. Massachusetts has already recovered all of the jobs lost in the recession, and Vermont is close to recovery. What distinguishes this New Hampshire economic recovery, compared to past growth periods, is a lack of migration into the state. In the past, economic growth in New Hampshire also meant a gain of 10,000 to 20,000 new residents each year, most of those coming from nearby Massachusetts. That has not happened in this expansion.

What happens in New Hampshire partially depends on what happens in Massachusetts. There is a connection, and it is a strong connection. New Hampshire contributes to the regional economy by offering a lower-cost alternative for employees and firms looking to reduce expenses and stay in New England. Greater Boston and southern New Hampshire are part of the same regional economy; in fact, the U.S. Census defines the Boston metropolitan area as extending all the way north to Manchester. Economic activity doesn’t stop, or start, at state borders.

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