From Tailwind to Headwind: NH's Shifting Economic Trends

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Brief Description

For several decades, New Hampshire has stood out as an economic anomaly in the Northeast. With a highly-educated workforce, high rates of in-migration and a high median per-capita income, New Hampshire boasted a strong, vibrant economy that gave it distinct advantages over its neighbors.

Here, as elsewhere in the country, the Great Recession has disrupted much of the state economy. But it is a mistake to assume that the recession is the sole reason for the recent slowdown in New Hampshire’s economic engine, or that, once the impacts of the recession are behind us, New Hampshire will return to the pattern of steady, reliable growth of years past.

In this analysis, we document long-term trends in various dimensions of New Hampshire’s economy and outline some possible goals for the state’s future economic development. Our conclusion: The model that has defined the state’s economy since the 1980s – consistent population growth, increased productivity, and a more resilient economy than our competitors – no longer holds. After benefiting from nearly three decades of economic tailwinds, New Hampshire now faces a strong headwind: net out-migration, an aging population and decreased labor productivity.