Forecast: N.H. economy to grow, despite challenges

Business News/Analysis

Forecast: N.H. economy to grow, despite challenges

Friday, May 30, 2008

The latest five-year forecast from the New England Economic Partnership says that New Hampshire is in “better shape” economically than other states in the region and the nation as a whole -- and should remain that way through 2012.

According to economist Dennis Delay, deputy director of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies and New Hampshire forecast manager of the New England Economic Partnership, job growth in the state from 2007 to 2012 is expected to slightly exceed that of the last five years and growth in gross state product is projected to remain steady at 2.8 percent a year.

“The Granite State economy is in better shape right now than the regional and national economies, and is likely to remain vigorous in the future,” said Delay, noting that while jobs have been declining on average both in New England and the United States over the last four months, the job base in New Hampshire has been increasing.

He said total non-farm jobs in the state are projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2 percent over the forecast period, compared to an annual growth rate of 10 percent from 2002-2007.

Still, New Hampshire faces challenges associated with the troubled real estate markets, Delay said.

“Job losses in manufacturing can be tied to the failing real estate markets and the downturn in housing construction,” he said. Foreclosures in New Hampshire have increased compared to one year ago. Housing prices in New Hampshire will probably fall 15 percent from the peak, before real estate markets bottom out.”

Delay will present the New Hampshire economic forecast today at the New England Economic Partnership's spring outlook conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. – JEFF FEINGOLD/NEW HAMPSHIRE BUSINESS REVIEW

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